Global LNG demand is increasing
Source: METI, LNG Producer-Consumer Conference, June 2025
Shell’s LNG Outlook 2025 forecasts demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will rise by around 60% by 2040 (refer to chart above, left), largely driven by economic growth in Asia, emissions reductions in heavy industry and transport as well as the impact of artificial intelligence. Industry forecasts now expect LNG demand to reach 630-718 million tonnes a year by 2040, a higher forecast than last year. More than 170 million tonnes of new LNG supply is set to be available by 2030, helping to meet stronger gas demand, especially in Asia, but start-up timings of new LNG projects are uncertain. Shell also expect a continuing global LNG supply shortfall from about 2034.
“Upgraded forecasts show that the world will need more gas for power generation, heating and cooling, industry and transport to meet development and decarbonisation goals,” says Tom Summers, Senior Vice President for Shell LNG Marketing and Trading. “LNG will continue to be a fuel of choice because it’s a reliable, flexible and adaptable way to meet growing global energy demand.”
China is significantly increasing its LNG import capacity and aims to add piped gas connections for 150 million people by 2030 to meet increasing demand. India is also moving ahead with building natural gas infrastructure and adding gas connections to 30 million people over the next five years.
At the 2025 LNG Producer-Consumer Conference the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) stated LNG supply is expected to broadly align with demand scenarios projected by various institutions through the early 2030s. However, under high-demand scenarios, supply could become tight in the latter half of the 2030s (refer to chart above, right). On the supply side, projections are subject to significant uncertainty in the energy market, with the realization of planned and future LNG projects dependent on investment profitability and access to financing. On the demand side, particularly in emerging economies across Asia, it is important to recognize that demand levels may fluctuate depending on gas price trends, as these economies continue to grow. Under various Net-Zero scenarios an LNG surplus is forecast, but current evidence strongly suggests that the world will fall well short of Net-Zero by 2050, given the huge investments required and the potentially negative economic consequences on the way to getting there.
In the METI’s view, economic growth is expected to drive a continued increase in energy demand, and natural gas, including LNG, is anticipated to play an important role in meeting this growth. Gas-fired power plants contribute to power system stability by balancing the intermittency associated with the expansion of renewable energy. Additionally, as gas-fired generation emits fewer greenhouse gases than coal, fuel switching can support emissions reductions. Moreover, existing gas and LNG infrastructure can be repurposed for emerging low-carbon fuels such as biogas, e-methane, hydrogen, and ammonia, offering further decarbonization potential across the energy value chain. As such, LNG is expected to retain an important role during the energy transition.
Investment in upstream natural gas assets declined between 2015 and around 2020. This was due to a combination of factors, including the oil price decrease, policy and demand uncertainty following the Paris Agreement, increasingly stringent regulations on upstream oil and gas investments, and a strategic shift among energy companies toward renewables. Additionally, energy companies with high leverage suffered from the sharp decline in oil prices. However, since 2021, heightened concerns over energy security, particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the associated spike in commodity prices have reignited upstream investment. Investment in LNG liquefaction projects, which had been constrained during the oil price slump, surged in 2018–2019 in anticipation of the increase of oil price and demand recovery. In 2019, the volume of liquefaction capacity reaching final investment decision (FID) marked a record high. Since 2021, large-scale projects such as Rio Grande Phase 1, Port Arthur Phase 1, and Plaquemines Phase 2 in the United States, and the North Field expansion in Qatar, have also reached FID, pushing liquefaction investment volumes upward.
Remarkably, Australia has not played a major role in this LNG investment surge.
Natural gas is essential for the global energy transition, as evidenced by growing LNG demand
Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, European and Asian countries more than most have recognized that they must reduce reliance on any one region or country’s supply of energy including natural gas.
Natural gas is both a transition and a destination fuel. Natural gas and LNG are essential for the energy transition as they play an instrumental role in shifting away from coal and moving toward net-zero emissions. As the transition evolves, natural gas will remain vital in providing reliable and efficient energy to support economies in different parts of the world including Australia and all of Asia.
The re-drawing of global energy supply maps is pushing natural gas and LNG demand to new heights and spurring new off-take contracting and other activities and opportunities for companies like Gulf Energy, for example:
Venture Global Inc. has signed a long-term agreement to supply Spanish company Naturgy with 1 million tonnes/year (tpy) LNG. The 20-year agreement, which begins in 2030, is an expansion of Venture Global’s LNG contracting to Spain. To date, Venture Global has supplied Spain with 35 cargoes from its Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines plants. (Oil & Gas Journal, 11 November 2025)
The LNG Canada export plant in Kitimat, British Columbia, in the traditional territory of the Haisla Nation, is now exporting LNG from two processing trains with a total capacity of 14 million tonnes/year. (Oil & Gas Journal, 7 November 2025)
Pembina Pipeline Corp. and Petroliam Nasional Berhad (Petronas) have signed a long-term agreement for 1.0 million tonnes/year (tpy) of Pembina's liquefaction capacity at the 3.3-million tpy floating Cedar LNG plant in Kitimat, British Columbia, Canada. (Oil & Gas Journal, 6 November 2025)
Energy Transfer will only make the final investment decision on the Lake Charles LNG project after it finds buyers for 80% of its equity, the company said in its third-quarter earnings call. (Yahoo Finance, 6 November 2025)
YPF SA and Eni SPA have partnered with XRG, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s (ADNOC) international investment arm, in the continued development of Argentina LNG, a project to liquefy Vaca Muerta natural gas production and export it from the Atlantic coast at Río Negro, Patagonia. (Oil & Gas Journal, 6 November 2025)
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co PJSC (ADNOC) said Tuesday it has signed a 15-year deal with Shell PLC to supply the British company up to one million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Ruwais LNG project in the United Arab Emirates. (Rigzone, 5 November 2025)
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co PJSC (ADNOC) signed Tuesday a "non-binding framework agreement" to invest in YPF SA and Eni SpA's project to export up to 12 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) of natural gas from the Vaca Muerta field onshore Argentina. (Rigzone, 5 November 2025)
Pembina Pipeline Corp. and PETRONAS have signed a 20-year agreement covering 1 million tonnes per year (MMtpy) of liquefaction capacity at the Cedar LNG project on Canada’s West Coast. Under the synthetic liquefaction service structure, Pembina will transport and liquefy gas for PETRONAS LNG Ltd., providing the Malaysian company an additional export outlet for its Canadian gas production while securing Pembina a long-term, take-or-pay revenue stream. (Pipeline & Gas Journal, 5 November 2025)
Qatar’s state-owned oil and gas giant QatarEnergy has chosen Samsung C&T Corporation as the contractor, which will breathe life into a giant carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project designed to serve the Persian Gulf state’s existing liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities. (Offshore Energy, 3 November 2025)
Japanese utilities JERA, Tohoku Electric Power and Kyushu Electric Power all liquefied natural gas buyers from Russia's Sakhalin-2, can secure alternative supplies if flows are interrupted, excutives said, as the U.S. pressures countries to halt energy imports from Russia. (Reuters, 31 October 2025)
The US and Qatar are spearheading a global LNG expansion, with projects from the two countries expected to add about 210 bcm by 2030, based on timelines that have reached FID or are under construction, according to the IEA. (OIl & Gas Journal, 29 October 2025)
Excelerate Energy Inc. has executed a definitive commercial agreement with a subsidiary of Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity for development of the country’s first LNG import terminal at the Port of Khor Al Zubair. (Oil & Gas Journal, 29 October 2025)
An Islamist insurgency that froze TotalEnergies SE’s $24.5-billion gas project in Mozambique four years ago is intensifying, just as the French oil major prepares to restart development. (Rigzone, 29 October 2025)
The overseas unit of Abu Dhabi’s biggest oil company is in talks to invest in a liquefied natural gas project Argentina’s YPF SA is developing as it pushes to start exporting the fuel, according to people familiar with the matter.
XRG is eyeing a stake in the project as it considers expanding its LNG portfolio in Latin America, the US and Asia. (Rigzone, 28 October 2025)
TotalEnergies SE needs Mozambique’s approval for a $4.5 billion increase in cost to its liquefied natural gas project before restarting construction that’s been delayed since 2021 due to security issues. (Rigzone, 28 October 2025)
Glenfarne Alaska LNG, a subsidiary of Glenfarne Group, has boosted the commercial momentum of its Alaskan liquefied natural gas (LNG) export development through a deal with Japan’s energy utilities giant Tokyo Gas, representing the fifth agreement in seven months, totaling more than half of the project’s volume. (Offshore Energy, 27 October 2025)
Glenfarne Alaska LNG LLC has signed a letter of intent (LOI) with Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd. for the offtake of 1 million tonnes/year (tpy) of LNG from the Alaska LNG project. The 20-million tpy Alaska LNG project consists of a 42-in. OD pipeline to transport natural gas from Alaska’s North Slope to meet Alaska’s domestic needs and produce 20 million tpy of LNG for export. (Oil & Gas Journal, 25 October 2025)
The US has imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, in response to Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, aiming to cut off funding for the Kremlin's military efforts and escalate economic pressure. (Oil & Gas Journal, 24 October 2025)
The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has granted final authorization for Venture Global Inc's CP2 LNG project in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, to export to countries without a free trade agreement (FTA) with Washington, following a conditional permit in March. (Rigzone, 23 October 2025)
The energy chiefs of leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters Qatar and the United States on Wednesday addressed a letter to European Union heads of state calling for the removal of provisions in the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) that they say curtail LNG trade. (Rigzone, 23 October 2025)
Woodside Energy Group Ltd has roped in another partner for the under-construction Louisiana LNG with Williams Companies Inc acquiring a minority interest and entering into an offtake agreement for 1.5 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa). (Rigzone, 23 October 2025)
JERA, Japan's top power generator, on Thursday said it will buy natural gas production assets in the U.S. for $1.5 billion, marking its entry into American shale gas production. (Reuters, 23 October 2025)
Egypt is embarking on a plan to buy more oil products for power generation as the cash-strapped North African nation frees up gas for LNG exports, as part of efforts to repay money it owes to foreign operators. (Rigzone, 22 October 2025)
Japan's trade minister said the country aims to curb dependence on Russian liquefied natural gas, but can't immediately halt imports despite growing pressure from the US. (Rigzone, 21 October 2025)
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), total LNG export capacity could climb from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2024 to a staggering 28.7 Bcf/d by 2029. The numbers are jaw-dropping — and they speak to how central North America has become in powering global energy security. (Oilgasleads.com, 19 October 2025)
With the FID, the company noted it closed financial transactions to fully fund Train 5 and its related infrastructure and has issued full notice to proceed to Bechtel Energy Inc. under the company’s lump-sum, turnkey engineering, procurement, and construction contract. (Oil & Gas Journal, 18 October 2025)
NextDecade Corp on Thursday announced a final investment decision (FID) and financial close for the $6.7-billion fifth train of Rio Grande LNG in Brownsville, Texas, as well as a full notice to proceed to contractor Bechtel Energy Inc. (Rigzone, 17 October 2025)
Santos had to temporarily shut down the newly installed BW Opal FPSO for its Barossa gas-condensate project in the Timor Sea, the company said in its third-quarter 2025 update. (Offshore Magazine, 17 October 2025)
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters in the United States have announced plans to more than double U.S. liquefaction capacity, adding an estimated 13.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) between 2025 and 2029, according to our Liquefaction Capacity File and trade press reports. The United States is already the largest exporter in the world with 15.4 Bcf/d of capacity. (EIA, 16 October 2025)
Mozambique might be on its way to becoming a significant global LNG player, as three LNG projects are progressing in the African country. ENI took FID on Carol North FLNG in Area 4, while TotalEnergies and ExxCommonwealth LNG earlier this month asked the US Federal Energy Commission (FERC) for another 4 years to construct and begin exporting LNG from its planned 9.5 million tonne/year plant in Cameron Parish, La. (Oil & Gas Journal, 15 October 2025)
Shell and Sunlink Energies. have taken FID on the HI gas project offshore Nigeria. When completed, the project will supply 350 MMscfd of gas at peak production to Nigeria LNG. (Oil & Gas Journal, 15 October 2025)
Mobil are planning to progress their two land-based LNG projects in the near future, as soon as force majeure ends. (AAPG, 13 October 2025)
bp Gas Marketing Ltd. has won its arbitration case against Venture Global LNG Inc. related to offtake from the latter’s 10-million tonne/year Calcasieu Pass LNG plant. (Oil & Gas Journal, 11 October 2025)
Egypt is asking its liquefied natural gas suppliers to delay shipments scheduled for the rest of the year on weaker-thanexpected demand. (Rigzone, 10 October 2025)
Eni and its partners have taken FID on the deepwater Coral North project offshore Mozambique, the second field development in the Rovuma Basin. This will focus on gas in the northern part of the Coral reservoir in offshore Area 4, to be produced via a 3.6-MMt/year floating LNG (FLNG) vessel. Coral South, the initial development that came onstream in 2022, also features an FLNG. (Offshore Magazine, 4 October 2025)
EIG Global Energy Partners' MidOcean Energy said it has entered into definitive agreements to invest in Petroliam Nasional Bhd's (Petronas) Canadian businesses, including by acquiring a stake in the recently fired up LNG Canada. (Rigzone, 3 October 2025)
Shell-led LNG Canada has begun the process of starting up its second 6.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) liquefied natural gas processing unit known as Train 2 in Kitimat, British Columbia. (Yahoo News, 3 October 2025)
Sempra Infrastructure’s Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project engineering contractor Bechtel Energy Inc. has let a contract to Baker Hughes to supply certain liquefaction equipment for the project, currently under construction in Jefferson County, Texas. (Oil & Gas Journal, 2 October 2025)
See past activities and opportunities for companies like Gulf Energy below:
Future global LNG demand will come mainly from Asia, and the Bamaga Basin (Q/23P) is ideally located to supply that market
Australia is ‘location competitive’ for much of Asia
Asia’s demand for LNG is forecast to surge, but Australia hasn’t found and developed enough new gas to remain a major global LNG supplier
Australia is closer to most high potential Asian markets than its biggest LNG exporting competitors, Qatar and the USA.
Australia has failed to maintain a steady stream of new gas production projects being brought online.
More than $200 billion of LNG projects were approved for final investment decisions (FIDs) in Australia before 2012. Since then, the Woodside Scarborough Project (Pluto Train 2 Expansion) and the Santos Barossa Project are the only LNG projects to reach FID, with the latter being primarily a backfill project to extend the life of the Darwin LNG facility.
Without further investment in new LNG trains and upstream infrastructure, Australia will lose its position as a major LNG exporter and will almost certainly lose its energy security.